An alarming news study claims that there is a big chance that Hawaii gets hit with a mega-tsunami in the next few decades.
Specifically, researchers have determined through modeling and studying historical tsunamis that there is a 9 percent chance that a magnitude 9 earthquake will send a tsunami blasting toward Hawaii within the next 50 years, according to a statement from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
The earthquake would most likely erupt off the Aleutian Islands, which are off the coast of Alaska. Although that is very far away, the resulting tsunami would speed across the ocean and smash into Hawaii, resulting in billions of dollars in damage and affecting the lives of 300,000 people.
Scientists arrived at their conclusions by studying the five largest earthquakes since 1900, as well as “paleotsunamis,” which were huge tsunamis that happened ages ago. They used this information to create a model that closely matched history.
“Necessity is the mother of invention,” Rhett Butler, lead author and geophysicist at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), said in the statement. “Having no recorded history of mega tsunamis in Hawai‘i, and given the tsunami threat to Hawai‘i, we devised a model for Magnitude 9 earthquake rates following upon the insightful work of David Burbidge and others.”
The statement notes: “Using the probability of occurrence, the researchers were able to annualize the risk. They report the chance of a Magnitude 9 earthquake in the greater Aleutians is 9% ± 3% in the next 50 years. Hence the risk is 9% of $40 billion, or $3.6 billion. Annualized, this risk is about $72 million per year. Considering a worst-case location for Hawai’i limited to the Eastern Aleutian Islands, the chances are about 3.5% in the next 50 years, or about $30 million annualized risk. In making decisions regarding mitigation against this $30-$72 million risk, the state can now prioritize this hazard with other threats and needs.”